Market Update: Mexican Jalapeño
20 August 2025

 

Mexico’s jalapeño market is navigating another difficult season, much like the previous one, as producers deal with the aftershocks of extreme weather patterns. The recent end of the La Niña phase has led to a volatile climate mix from extreme drought to unusually high rainfall which is unfavourable for jalapeño crops at all growth stages.

 

Weather & Environmental Stress

Volatile Transition from La Niña:

  • La Niña, typically associated with drier conditions in northern Mexico, has faded but its impact lingers.
  • June saw record rainfall, yet water reserves remain critically low due to prior drought.
  • Growing regions are swinging between drought and heavy rain, both of which are damaging to jalapeño development:

🌡️ Excess heat (>32°C) reduces fruit set and quality.

🌧️ Too much rain promotes fungal disease and root rot.

🌬️ Unpredictable climate swings mean increased crop stress and yield instability.

 

Ongoing Drought Risk:

  • Despite heavy June rains, dam levels remain 5% below normal.
  • Major producing states like Sinaloa and Chihuahua remain under exceptional drought warnings.

 

Crop & Pricing Outlook

Winter Crop (Finished):

  • Yield and quality were stable compared to last year.
  • Freight costs increased, but field prices were unchanged.
  • Labour shortages affected the final weeks of picking, though most packers replenished stock.

Summer Crop (Ongoing):

  • Started in late June with normal planting area, but water permit limits could shorten the season by September.
  • Field prices are expected to rise due to tighter availability.

Implications for Buyers

⚠️ Supply Volatility Expected: Weather extremes are compromising crop consistency. Buyers should prepare for potential availability and pricing swings late in the season.

📦 Stock Positioning Recommended: Though current stocks are stable, forward coverage is advisable, especially if manufacturers rely on jalapeños as key input.

🌐 Trade & Tariffs (US Market Focus): No impact on UK tariffs noted, but US market uncertainty could tighten overall demand and supply balance if buyers pull forward stock.

 

Summary

  • The season remains challenging with both heat and rain impacting yields.
  • Water stress in key growing regions could shorten the summer crop.
  • Prices are likely to increase as we head toward Q4.
  • UK buyers should monitor import timelines and secure forward cover to mitigate risks.

 

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