Market Update: Processed Tomatoes May 2025
23 May 2025

As the 2025 season unfolds, the global processed tomato market faces a mix of climatic uncertainty, shifting trade dynamics, and region-specific developments. For industrial buyers, staying informed on these variables is critical for managing risk and seizing sourcing opportunities.

Spain & Portugal: Weather Woes and Price Watch

  • Severe March flooding delayed transplanting, with a forecasted 15.5% production drop.

  • Spot prices have prompted a delicate balance for buyers: delay and risk carryover, or act now to secure potential value.

  • Our advice: Buy early for non-concentrated formats like diced and chopped tomatoes.

Italy: Mixed Outlook Across Regions

  • Southern Italy: No concerns reported; raw material pricing for 2025 already set.

  • Northern Italy: Yield and quality stress due to rainfall and high temps. Specialty tomatoes (datterini, cherry) are being prioritised.

  • Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, including potential U.S. tariff adjustments, could disrupt trade patterns.

Egypt: A Rising Star in EU-Aligned Tomato Supply

  • 25% production increase, thanks to strong export demand and growing compliance with EU standards.

  • Colour +2 product is widely available following the winter harvest.

  • Egypt’s competitive edge is strengthening, making it a key origin for bulk tomato ingredients.

Global Supply & Demand Landscape

  • Rising demand for tomato paste in Asia and Africa.

  • China and the USA remain dominant in export volumes, China in bulk low-cost supply, the USA regionally focused.

  • Freight costs have stabilised slightly, but container availability remains patchy, particularly in the Mediterranean and Suez areas.

What This Means for 2025 Procurement

  • Spain’s weather setbacks and Italy’s yield challenges could elevate prices later in the year.

  • Egypt offers a stable, value-driven alternative for bulk and EU-standard supply.

  • Keep an eye on U.S. and Chinese output and evolving freight dynamics.

  • Prepare for pricing volatility, particularly with new U.S. tariffs disrupting global trade.

Strategic Sourcing in a Shifting Market

Staying flexible in your procurement decisions will be key to securing supply and protecting margins in 2025. At Lupa Foods, we’re monitoring the global tomato landscape closely and are here to guide your sourcing strategy with accurate updates and dependable solutions.

For bespoke support and product availability contact us today.

VIEW OUR PROCESSED TOMATO PRODUCTS HERE

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