Market Update: Rice
26 August 2025

Global rice production in 2025 is projected to grow by 1% to 836 million tonnes (555.6 Mt milled basis), following a robust 2.8% growth in 2024, largely driven by strong harvests in Asia, especially India.

 

Trade & Prices

  • International rice trade is expected to hit a record 62 million tonnes (+3%).
  • The Osiriz/InfoArroz Index fell to 189.7 in July and continued downward to 188 by mid-August.
  • Prices are broadly declining across origins, with the exception of certain parboiled varieties.

 

🇮🇳 India

  • Now the world’s largest producer, overtaking China.
  • 2025 exports projected at 25 million tonnes (+40% YoY), over 40% of global trade.
  • Despite export surpluses, price softening is likely to continue.

 

🇹🇭 Thailand

  • Prices declined 5% in July, as exporters compete with Vietnam.
  • More softening expected as the first harvest hits markets late August.

 

🇵🇰 Pakistan

  • Prices fell 1–1.5% in July.
  • New harvests are improving exportable supply.
  • 2025 exports expected at 6 Mt, only slightly down from 6.5 Mt in 2024.

 

🇮🇹 Italy – Domestic Market Pressure from Imports

  • Italian producers face intense pricing pressure from low-cost paddy rice imports from Asia.
  • This has especially affected mid-range varieties like Ribe and Roma.
  • Despite higher production costs (labour, energy, sustainability standards), Italian growers have limited pricing flexibility.

🔢 Stock & Sowing Trends

  • Stock levels up significantly:
    • +48,000 tonnes YoY held by producers
    • +44,000 tonnes YoY held by processors/traders
  • Carryover into next season projected at ~120,000 tonnes.
  • 2025 sowing increased to ~235,500 hectares (+9,000 ha YoY)

📌 A market update on new Italian crop prices is expected early September.

 

🔎 Implications for UK Ingredient Buyers

⚠️ Watch for continued global price softening, particularly on white and broken rice varieties.

🇮🇹 Italian-origin rice may offer short-term buying opportunities due to domestic oversupply and import pressure, though long-term cost challenges persist.

📦 Sourcing from India and Pakistan remains favourable due to abundant exportable stocks, but monitor logistical or political disruptions.

 

📝 Summary & Recommendations

📉 Global rice prices are softening, with supply outpacing demand in key origins.

🏭 UK manufacturers should review forward contracts now, especially for Asian and Italian varieties under pressure.

🇮🇹 Monitor Italian market developments in early September as new crop data emerges.

 

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