Market Update: Tomatoes
23 April 2026

The processed tomato market enters the 2026 campaign in a relatively balanced position, following supply adjustments during the 2025 crop. Global production remains stable at approximately 39–40 million tonnes, with supply and demand largely aligned across major regions. However, beneath this stability, the market is evolving. Pricing is increasingly driven by cost pressures rather than raw material availability, and overall volatility is rising. Smaller disruptions are now having a greater impact than in previous years.

Cost inflation remains the dominant theme. Packaging costs have increased by approximately 15%, alongside notable rises in plastics, aluminium, inks and adhesives. At the same time, energy continues to be the largest uncertainty for processors, with geopolitical developments limiting visibility on future costs. As a result, even where raw material prices are stable or slightly lower, finished product pricing remains firm due to conversion and input cost pressures.

Italy

Stable supply with slight raw material easing, but ongoing cost pressure

Production is expected to remain in line with last year (~5.7m tonnes), with raw material prices agreed at around €137/mt (↓ ~4% YoY). Stock levels are balanced following weaker previous crops, and quality remains strong. Water availability is generally stable, although some regional concerns persist in the south.

Greece

Reduced contribution to overall European supply

Production is expected to decline to around 450,000 tonnes, reflecting ongoing structural pressure in the sector.

Portugal

Stable outlook with short-term uncertainty until contracts are finalised

Negotiations with growers are still ongoing, limiting visibility on final volumes. At present, production is expected to remain around last year’s level.

Turkey

Recovery potential with improving supply outlook

Following a reduced 2025 crop, production could recover if farmer pricing expectations are met. Lower returns from competing crops are likely to support planting.

Spain

Potential volume recovery, but margin pressure remains across the chain

The 2026 crop has started under normal conditions, with transplanting progressing well. Early estimates suggest production of ~2.6m tonnes (+8–10%), assuming improved yields. Raw material pricing remains flat, but growers are facing increasing pressure from input costs. Some localised weather risks (excess rainfall) could impact crop timing.

Egypt

Consistent and reliable supply base

The winter crop is currently being processed with good quality, while the summer crop is progressing in line with expectations. Production is forecast at ~800,000 tonnes.

Other Origins (Global Market Influence)

Outside of Lupa’s core sourcing regions, several major producers continue to shape the global balance.

  • The USA (California) is expected to see a reduction in planted area, creating some uncertainty around final output
  • China’s production remains below peak levels seen in earlier years, contributing to a tighter global balance
  • Iran remains a geopolitical wildcard, with limited visibility on production and trade flows

These regions collectively account for a significant share of global production and therefore play a key role in setting the overall supply-demand balance and price direction.

Conclusion

Supply across major regions is broadly stable and early crop conditions are positive, but the key driver of the market has shifted to cost inflation, particularly energy and packaging. This means that even in the absence of supply shortages, prices are likely to remain firm and reactive to cost movements.

For buyers, relying on supply-driven price reductions may not deliver the expected outcome. Instead, a flexible and proactive sourcing strategy is recommended. With a wide portfolio of tomato products sourced across multiple origins we’re well positioned to support customers with continuity of supply and origin flexibility in a volatile market environment.

 

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